Wind Profile Analysis and Wind Turbine Selection for a Low-Wind Site: A Case Study of Lokoja, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjorae.2026.0301.63Keywords:
Wind Energy, Weibull Distribution, Turbine Performance, Low Wind-SiteAbstract
This study presents a comprehensive assessment of wind energy potential and turbine performance in Lokoja, Nigeria, a region characterized by low to moderate wind speeds. Wind speed data at 10 m height, obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet) were statistically analyzed using Weibull distribution to model the site’s wind profile, forming the basis for simulating the performance of ten wind turbine models ranging from 10 kW to 6 MW. Evaluation criteria included cut-in speed, annual energy production (AEP), capacity factor, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE).Results showed that turbines with low cut-in speeds (≤2.5 m/s) are more suitable for Lokoja’s wind regime. Among all models, the Enercon E-115/3.000 demonstrated the highest cost-efficiency, with a capacity factor of 0.124 and an estimated LCOE of $0.085/kWh (₦136.61). Mid-sized turbines like the Polaris P62-1000 and Envision EN-82/1500 also showed balanced performance for decentralized applications. In contrast, smaller turbines such as the Bergey Excel 10 and Aircon 10S were found to be economically unviable due to low energy yield and high unit cost. This study provides a critical, data-driven framework for turbine selection in Nigeria's underexplored inland low-wind regions, supporting the country's goals for renewable energy diversification and rural electrification. It is recommended that small to medium sized turbine with ultra- low cut-in-speed be prioritized for deployment in Lokoja.
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